The statisticians said President Donald Trump pretty much can’t lose next year, and that was before the Meuller report came out.
Ray C. Fair, the famed Yale University economics professor known for nailing presidential election outcomes, says Trump’s a winner because the economy is going good.
“Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy — and that’s more or less consensus for between now and the election — that has a Trump victory and by a not-trivial margin,” winning 54 percent of the popular vote to 46 for the Democrat, Fair told Politico in a story the Washington, D.C.-based website published last week.
Donald Luskin of TrendMacrolytics has a statistical model that shows Trump sweeping the Electoral College, according to the story.
“The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it,” Luskin told Politico.
Forecasters predict the economy will slow down this year, but the bad news on Wall Street usually takes a while to really sink in on Main Street. I’m guessing even if a slide starts this year, it might not be bad enough by next year to hurt Trump’s re-election chances.
— BORYS KRAWCZENIUK