OK, so sometimes the numbers guys get scary with their predictions.
If you follow this blog, you know I think highly of Nate Silver’s 538 website.
I love numbers and Nate does a great job organizing numbers and creating models to predict what might happen in a political race.
In Pennsylvania, he pegged every one of the U.S. House race and the Senate race with a percentage point or two.
Let’s take a look.
Silver’s last pre-election forecast had U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, the Democrat, beating U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta, the Republican, by 54.9% to 43.4%. The unofficial final number: Casey, 55.5% to 42.9%.
In the 8th Congressional District race between Democratic U.S. Rep. Matt Cartwright and Republican John Chrin, 538 forecast Cartwright by 55.7-44.3. It ended up 54.7-45.3.
In the 12th district race between Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Marino and Democrat Marc Friedenberg, 538 forecast Marino by 66.6-33.4. Marino won 66.1-33.9.
In the 9th district race between Republican Dan Meuser and Democrat Denny Wolff, 538 forecast 60.8-39.2. Marino won 59.9-40.1
You can see all the numbers for yourself here and here. The first link will take you to the 538 page for Casey-Barletta, then you can search for the congresssional races by candidate name in the box on the left. The second link is for the state election results website for congressional races.